Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.008177 0.009213 0.010332 0.011632 0.013101 0.014709 0.016606
2026-01-25 0.006485 0.007898 0.009550 0.011626 0.014170 0.017188 0.021052
2026-02-01 0.005438 0.006988 0.008901 0.011441 0.014733 0.018865 0.024467
2026-02-08 0.004798 0.006442 0.008562 0.011506 0.015502 0.020757 0.028224
2026-02-15 0.004251 0.005926 0.008171 0.011411 0.015989 0.022253 0.031532
2026-02-22 0.003921 0.005654 0.008059 0.011652 0.016914 0.024383 0.035865
2026-03-01 0.003467 0.005152 0.007563 0.011281 0.016906 0.025153 0.038267
2026-03-08 0.003126 0.004777 0.007207 0.011066 0.017080 0.026171 0.041087
2026-03-15 0.002814 0.004414 0.006830 0.010772 0.017091 0.026916 0.043517
2026-03-22 0.002697 0.004338 0.006881 0.011138 0.018152 0.029362 0.048854
2026-03-29 0.002562 0.004218 0.006848 0.011361 0.018991 0.031506 0.053867
2026-04-05 0.002446 0.004119 0.006837 0.011614 0.019890 0.033807 0.059331
2026-04-12 0.002271 0.003909 0.006631 0.011526 0.020217 0.035193 0.063374
2026-04-19 0.002125 0.003738 0.006478 0.011518 0.020678 0.036848 0.068053
2026-04-26 0.001966 0.003529 0.006239 0.011334 0.020804 0.037909 0.071719
2026-05-03 0.001861 0.003407 0.006144 0.011399 0.021384 0.039827 0.077156
2026-05-10 0.001742 0.003250 0.005973 0.011305 0.021653 0.041184 0.081616
2026-05-17 0.001679 0.003193 0.005978 0.011543 0.022573 0.043840 0.088874
2026-05-24 0.001542 0.002984 0.005683 0.011176 0.022277 0.044107 0.091309
2026-05-31 0.001436 0.002826 0.005474 0.010962 0.022265 0.044927 0.094943
2026-06-07 0.001330 0.002660 0.005237 0.010671 0.022069 0.045354 0.097775
2026-06-14 0.001306 0.002656 0.005318 0.011034 0.023255 0.048716 0.107239
2026-06-21 0.001267 0.002620 0.005331 0.011255 0.024158 0.051551 0.115792